Reading simulation results

What the Results dock shows and how to read each statistic, chart, and tab.

Select a scenario or portfolio and CRQ Pro simulates it automatically, filling the Results dock at the bottom of the Scenarios page. Results re-run on their own whenever you change inputs, appetite, or the iteration setting (you will briefly see "Updating…"), and there is a Re-run button for manual runs.

Simulations use a fixed random seed, so the same inputs always produce the same results.

Summary statistics

Statistic	Meaning
Expected Annual Loss (ALE)	The mean of the annual loss distribution. The long-run average yearly cost.
Median (P50)	Half of simulated years lose less than this, half lose more. Often far below the mean for skewed cyber losses.
P90	A 1-in-10-year loss level.
95% VaR	A 1-in-20-year loss level (95th percentile).
P99	A 1-in-100-year loss level.
Max simulated	The single worst year in the run. Indicative only; it moves with iteration count.
P(any loss / yr)	The share of simulated years with at least one loss event.

A risk rating badge (Low, Moderate, High, or Critical) shows how the rated statistic compares to your risk appetite.

Tabs

• Scenario: details of the selected item.

• Taxonomy: factor sensitivity for a single scenario, showing which parts of the model drive the result.

• Stats: expected values per factor for a single scenario.

• Loss Exceedance: the LEC plots, for each loss amount, the probability that annual losses exceed it. Read it as "there is a 5% chance of losing more than X in a year." Exportable as CSV or PNG.

• Histogram: the shape of the annual loss distribution. Exportable as CSV or PNG.

• Simulations: the raw per-run table, one row per simulated year, sortable, with per-run exceedance percent. Drilling into a single scenario also shows the realized event count (LEF) and per-event loss. The full table can be exported to CSV.

• Contributors (portfolios): ranks member scenarios by contribution to the mean and to the tail.

Iteration count

Settings > Application > Simulation > Default iterations sets the trials per simulation: 10,000, 50,000 (default), 100,000, or 250,000. Higher is more precise, especially in the tail (P99 and beyond), but slower. 50,000 is a good working default; bump it for final numbers going into a report.